Module 6: Scenarios and Results

Module 6: Charts for Testing Assumptions – In Breakout Groups and Plenary Session

Chart for Breakout Groups

Before the breakout: Copy the template for viewing on the breakout room wall, filling in the first column only with the commonly-held assumptions generated over the course of the study.

At the meeting: Ask participants to rate whether each commonly-held assumption seems C (credible), U (uncertain) or V (vulnerable) according to the conditions of the given scenario. Where the group finds an assumption vulnerable, discuss and record in the last column what a better, more robust assumption could be.

Commonly-held Assumption	Scenario Name	Scenario Name	Scenario Name	Revised Robust Assumption
	Credible	Uncertain	Vulnerable

Chart for Plenary Session

Before the plenary: Use the template to summarize the breakout group findings on a wall to present back to the group. Copy the (original) list of commonly-held assumptions, and indicate for each assumption under each scenario, whether it was deemed to be: C (credible), U (uncertain) or V (vulnerable). Beside each V, in the same column, record also the robust assumption proposed by the breakout group.

During the plenary: Reporters present their group’s findings. Review the assumptions deemed vulnerable under more than one scenario and in the last column write a new revised robust assumption to address all scenarios, based on discussion with participants.

Commonly-held Assumption	Scenario	Scenario	Scenario	Scenario	Revised Robust Assumption
	Muddling Through	Incremental Decline	Incremental Progress	Transformation