Module 2 : Assumptions

• Generate assumption reversals (5 minutes)
• Team members scan for evidence (15 minutes)

5. Report back to the group (8 minutes)
6. Summarize points of the assumptions reversal exercise (2 minutes)

• Introduce facilitators
• Provide context for the session (why are we here?)
• Allow participant introductions if they are unacquainted
• Consider adding a few minutes to the agenda to:
  • build rapport through an ice-breaker activity(link is external)
  • review ground rules to ensure a good discussion

• If this is one of several activities, consider using a visual agenda to situate this activity within the day’s events.
• A list of rules of engagement posted in the room during the meeting is a visual reminder of the group’s commitment to support a good discussion.

• (If needed, first review or point to the list of assumptions that will be the basis for the exercise.)
• Explain the purpose of assumptions reversal:
  • “Now that we have identified some common assumptions about [our policy area], we are going to explore whether there is any evidence to the contrary using an assumptions reversal exercise.”
  • “Often we are drawn to information that confirms beliefs we already hold; the purpose of this exercise is to hone our critical thinking skills and form the habit of intentionally looking for what challenges conventional beliefs. With an open mind, we can better detect areas of potential surprise.”
• Provide an example:

• “For example, Wendy Schultz demonstrates how assumption reversal can creatively examine the role of restaurants.”

• RESTAURANTS
• Basic assumptions
  • Restaurants serve food
  • Are located outside the home
  • People pay for the food
  • The food is prepared by the restaurant
  • The restaurant earns a profit
  • People go to socialize
• Assumption reversals
  • Restaurants give food away
  • They don’t serve people
  • People bring their own food
  • Not-for-profit restaurant
• Data emerging
  • Serving pets and not people
  • Collaborative co-cooking
  • Restaurant is run by a local co-operative

• “We start with current-day assumptions (why we go, what we do, how they run, what they provide, etc.).” (Speak to examples in the chart.)
• “Then we consider what could be extreme alternatives to or opposites of each assumption. That’s the assumption reversal. There may be several alternatives. Some assumptions may not have an opposite.” (Speak to examples in the chart.)
• “Then we look out to the world for instances that support the alternative assumptions, e.g. alternative business models.” (Speak to examples in the chart.)

Option: If the group needs to warm up (e.g. first thing in the morning), consider facilitating the demonstration instead of presenting it. Ask participants for a few assumptions and alternative assumptions about restaurants or another tangible subject such as schools or hospitals. Fill in the first and second columns and, if participants can think of examples that counter the conventional model, fill in the third. Allow a few extra minutes if the example is facilitated rather than presented, but keep it brief; be illustrative rather than exhaustive.

• Tip: If participants will be expected to scan regularly for a project, it may be valuable to have them file their scan hits in a common space, such as a shared drive or an online collaborative tool like www.pearltrees.com. If so, consider how and when participants will be trained on the use of the tool.
• Copy this chart (or another example) onto a flipchart or a PowerPoint slide to present the exercise visually. Source: http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/crazyfutures-why-plausibilityis-maladaptive(link is external)

• Divide the group into teams of 3–5 people
• Provide instructions:
  • “In your team, you will examine one or two of the common assumptions that our policies take for granted, and identify several alternative assumptions that would make the assumption untrue. Try to think of as many as you can.”
  • “Then you will scan for instances that support these alternatives.”
  • “Record your results on a chart, then we’ll quickly report back what we found.”

• Provide each team with one assumption (written on a sticky note or read out from a flip chart). Have a back-up assumption ready in case the team either completes the exercise very quickly or comes up with little for the first assumption.
• Before the group breaks off for the activity, answer any questions that may arise.
  • Indicate if there are any scope limits you want to impose on the scanning. For instance, if the group will be scanning for new alternative models of healthcare, is it acceptable to include scan hits from developing countries? Should they be limited to Western models only? Should teams look for Canadian models first?

• Provide each team with a marker and a flip chart.

• Allow teams to spread out if possible and manage their own time, with the following suggested timing:
  • Generate assumption reversals (5 minutes)
  • Team members scan for evidence to support the reversed assumptions (15 minutes)
• Provide a 5-minute warning to ensure participants are recording their results on paper or a flipchart.

• Give each group a minute to share the assumption they started with, the list of alternative assumptions generated and a few examples that support the alternatives.

• “This activity reminds us to assess the validity of our assumptions by first considering alternatives and then scanning for evidence that supports these alternatives.”
• “Sometimes general scanning for weak signals of change can be overwhelming and unproductive. Using this approach can give your scanning some focus.”

• Give participants an opportunity to provide feedback on the exercise.
• This might take the form of:
  • A Q&A discussion
  • Participant completion of an evaluation form
  • Informal evaluation — On their way out the room, participants are asked to post one comment on a sticky note for each of three wall headings:
    • What Worked?
    • What Could Be better?

• Provide evaluation forms or sticky notes as appropriate