MetaScan 3: Emerging Technologies

• Agricultural and Natural Manufacturing Technology
• Neurotechnology and Cognitive Technologies
• Nanotechnology and Materials Science
• Health Technology
• Digital and Communication Technology
• Energy Technology
• Technology: Governing the Ungovernable?

Executive summary

Focus on disruptive technologies

Broadly speaking, there are two types of technological innovation: incremental and disruptive. Incremental changes lead to refinements in processes and products. Disruptive technologies produce radical or abrupt changes that challenge and transform larger social, economic, environmental and/or governance systems. This foresight study examines how four emerging technologies (digital technologies, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies and neuroscience technologies) could drive disruptive social and economic change over the next 10 to 15 years.

Many domains are affected

These technologies will impact almost every sector of the economy. One of the most disruptive features of several of the technologies is they increase productivity with fewer workers. Artificial intelligence (like Apple’s Siri) combined with data analytics could dramatically change the service sector with fewer workers. In a growing number of sectors, 3D printing could change the economics and location of manufacturing. Synthetic biology could change the economics and flow of raw materials in agriculture, forestry, energy and mining. Governments, business and society will have to work together to ensure there are innovative policies and institutions in place to ride the next wave of technological change. The next 10 to 15 years will be an era of transition. Almost every major piece of infrastructure will likely be under pressure to keep up in areas like skills development, health care, transportation and security. Ignoring or underestimating the rate of change could very well undermine our competitiveness, preparedness and resilience.

Taking a Long Term View

This study is based on wide research and interviews with more than 90 experts. The technologies in this study are at different stages of maturity and are moving at different speeds. All are expected to have disruptive impacts within 15 years and some much sooner. Some technologies may be rejected by Canada as too risky, but perhaps welcomed by others. The four technologies are laying the foundation for the global economy for the next 50 years. A lead time of 10 to 15 years is needed to take advantage of the opportunities and prepare for the challenges these technologies will present. While Canada has an active Science and Technology Strategy(link is external) to support technological innovation and training, deeper exploration of the parallel social and economic challenges resulting from these innovations would be useful to help government, business and society prepare.

Building on MetaScan 2

This study builds on the analysis of digital technologies in MetaScan 2. Digital technologies provide the platform that enables rapid diffusion and integration of the other three technologies. MetaScan 2 highlighted a number of challenges: The emergence of all-digital supply chains may challenge the tools and notion of a “national economy.” The rise of virtual foreign workers who use online tools to work across national boundaries will expand job opportunities for Canadians and possibly change immigration patterns and diversify trade in high- and low-skilled services. The need for just-in-time skills development and reputation systems to track workers’ competence will challenge the educational system. Firms will increasingly be virtual, international, project-oriented networks drawing on skilled workers wherever they live. What policies, programs and infrastructure would enable individuals and firms to thrive in this highly competitive environment?

Key findings: MetaScan 3 builds on MetaScan 2 and adds the following challenges:

• The new technologies increase productivity but with fewer workers. The next decade could be a period of jobless growth.
• All sectors of the economy will be under pressure to adapt or exploit the new technologies. The main features of the shift include greater customization, localization and intelligence built into production and delivery. Having people with the right skills will be essential.
• Shifting competitive advantage. Synthetic biology is the technology with the greatest potential for surprise. It could make it easier for Canada’s customers to grow their own fuel, food and natural resources. It may also make it easier for Canada to grow products like biosteel. The transition will not happen overnight, but Canadians should assess the long-term impact of this technology on key sectors and, if appropriate, develop strategies to move Canada up the value chain.
• A growing number of jobs will be temporary or non-standard jobs. For years, temporary work has been one of the fastest-growing employment groups. Interestingly, temporary and freelance jobs are an essential and growing part of the emerging economy. A core opportunity is to help them be more productive. They are outside the current social contract, so freelancers may not get the support they need to develop and prosper.
• The end of privacy as we know it. Several of the technologies will combine to make it easier and cheaper to learn about one another. There are huge personal and societal benefits to be gained when personal data is merged in large databases in areas like health care, but traditional notions of privacy may be challenged.
• New patterns of inequality may emerge. Technological advance may help generate better opportunities for individuals, but may also create new barriers to access. For example, several technologies offer new ways to assist the injured and the disabled, but the cost of treatment could limit access and create new inequities.
• Infrastructure in transition. The new technologies will likely drive significant change in infrastructure for health, transportation, security and energy systems. The challenge will be determining whether to maintain the old infrastructure or leapfrog to the new, more efficient one.
• Strengthening risk management and regulatory systems. All of the four groups of technologies will put increasing pressure on current risk management and regulatory systems in new ways. The global nature of these technologies suggests it will be challenging to respond quickly and in collaboration with other countries.
• Building a national culture of innovation. This is an era of considerable opportunity. The four groups of technologies in this study are laying the foundation for the next 50 years of development. With the right information, skills and policies at every level – from the individual to the global – Canada can prosper. Canada needs to see the whole innovation ecosystem and develop policies to support adaptation, experimentation, skills development, regulation and entrepreneurship.

The Objective is to Explore Assumptions and Challenges

This report takes the reader through a thought process that will help them examine or build their own mental model about how these technologies could shape the Canadian economy and society. The Horizons foresight method (see Appendix 2) does not predict the future. Rather, it systematically explores a range of futures and identifies plausible surprises and challenges that may emerge over the next 10 to 15 years. The objective of this study is to encourage dialogue and debate on core assumptions and emerging challenges to help develop robust policies and strategies to address them.

Using this Interactive Report

The icons – for video links, for where to find additional information and for “weak signals” – are intended to help you “see” signs of change in the present. Reading this report online will allow you to view this information. Pages 4-8 will help you visualize the technologies that will drive change. Pages 9-19 explore how those drivers could shape 10 “domains,” including manufacturing, services, resources, health, transportation and security. The domains illustrate the potential for change by providing examples of what our lives could be like in 2025. Pages 20-26 extend the analysis and describe the policy challenges that Canada may confront over the next 10 to 15 years. Pages 27-28 outline new assumptions that may be useful in shaping public policy.

Change Drivers

These technologies will drive changes that will shape the economy and society over the next 15 years.

What are change drivers?

In a world of causes and effects, change drivers are developments that significantly alter the system under study.

How are change drivers used?

Many environmental scans focus on change drivers and their implications. In a foresight study, surprises and challenges emerge as the change drivers interact with each other and the system under study.

Emerging biotechnologies

Our understanding of biology is growing and the impact is potentially enormous. Dr. Freeman Dyson,perhaps one of the most influential voices of the science landscape in the recent past, has stated, “the domestication of biotechnology will dominate our lives during the next fifty years at least as much as the domestication of computers has dominated our lives during the previous fifty years.” This section examines several of the emerging biotechnologies that will drive social and economic change.

Synthetic biology

Synthetic biology may be the least known and most “disruptive” of the technologies in this study. In essence, it is the application of engineering principles to biology. It draws on a number of existing technologies to design and construct new biological systems that produce useful products or serve useful purposes. Current software helps bio-engineers use a growing online library of “biobricks” to design new genetic functions. Biobricks can be assembled by robots, or digital DNA files can be sent to a DNA printer; in either case, the new DNA is inserted into a living cell. The technology is proving to be very efficient. For example, when genetic engineering (which modifies only a few genes at a time) was used to develop a yeast to produce precursors to the antimalarial drug, artemisinin(link is external), it took 150 person-years of work and $25 million. Using biobricks, however, a lab of 12 people produced 12 biological systems of comparable complexity in 3 months. Working in this field is becoming easier for researchers at all levels. In 2013, the International Genetically Engineered Machines(link is external) competition (iGEM) hosted over 200 university and 30 high school teams in using the new technologies to design and build new biological systems. There are clearly risks and opportunities. There are concerns about the safety of creating new life – particularly in the absence of a well-tested regulatory framework. On the opportunity side, life replicates itself for free, input costs are low, and manufacturing more biological devices involves only using more feedstock. Progress in synthetic biology could mean the beginning of a different world that moderates today’s concerns over issues like resource depletion and energy supply.

• Synthetic Biology: Pathway to Innovation in Fuels and Chemicals(link is external)
• Building with Synthetic Biology(link is external)
• Debate Over Glow-In-The-Dark Plants(link is external)

Bioinformatics

Bioinformatics involves storing, analyzing, modeling and sharing large amounts of biological data. Current applications of bioinformatics include DNA barcoding, new bioproducts (such as Millennium Asparagus and biodiesel(link is external)), modeling disease outbreaks and personal genomics. Our capacity to analyze large amounts of data and our ability to affect traits in plants, animals and humans will increase dramatically. Consider the potential of a widespread medical device costing under $1,000 that sequences your genome, connects to online databases, profiles your genetic history and future, highlights your risk profile, and identifies opportunities to mitigate risks. Bioinformatics holds the promise of tailoring medical and drug treatments to the individual through preventative medicine, using biomarkers to model adverse drug reactions, and helping to understand the complex interplay between genetics and environment. Bioinformatics will fundamentally change the way we think of and deliver health care systems.

My Future My Science(link is external)

Tissue engineering

Tissue engineering uses synthetic or naturally grown biomaterials to replace damaged or defective tissues, such as bone, skin and even entire organs. Today, organs that can be regrown include skin, windpipes and bladders; in a decade, this list may expand to kidneys, livers and hearts. Stem cells may also be used to repair damaged or failing organs in place. The most immediate application for tissue engineering is in the area of human health for purposes of healing, replacement and augmentation. This technology will reduce the need for organ donation and eliminate transplant rejection as body parts are regrown or printed using the patient’s own cells. In the longer term, advances in skin, bone and muscle synthesis may even allow individuals to change their appearance and augment physical abilities.

Engineering Organs from Scratch(link is external)

Emerging Nanotechnologies

Even as our understanding of life grows, new opportunities are emerging at an even smaller scale. Nano is derived from the Greek word “nanos,” which means “dwarf,” and it refers to the fact that nanoscience operates at an atomic scale. At this scale, substances sometimes behave in novel ways. This field is less advanced than biotechnologies, although much of current nanotechnology has a large biotechnology component. Some say that nanotechnology will be “technology on steroids” as it will improve or speed up developments across many technologies.

Nanomaterials

Nano-scale systems often exhibit properties that improve upon or are much different from their humanscale varieties; for example, silver exhibits anti-bacterial properties at the nano-scale that are absent at the macro-scale. As scientists work with materials close to the molecular level, they can produce new and useful materials, such as nanocellulose(link is external) and nanocarbon(link is external). Both have impressive performance characteristics, being respectively 10 and 50 times stronger than steel for their weight. Nanocoatings provide new ways to make structures self-cleaning, more durable and perhaps even able to receive, store and respond to stimuli. Other nanomaterials are excellent catalysts for making chemistry greener and cheaper. Over the next 15 years, nanomaterials will change the types of things we build and how we build them.

• Power of Nanotechnology(link is external)
• Nanotechnology Overview(link is external)

Nanodevices and nanosensors

Nanodevices are machines made of a number of molecular parts that do useful work (such as moving or changing electrically, chemically or optically) in response to specific inputs. Examples include nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS), nanosensors, nanocomputers and nanorobots. They have surprising energy-efficiency, power density, sensitivity and optical efficiency. Their small size also reduces production costs and increases the number of devices running in parallel, increasing speed. They are likely to be of most use in medical devices, although their small size may lead them to be treated as “smart” drugs. They are also likely to be components of human-scale devices to increase the performance or provide new abilities.

Nanosensors, in particular, are set to have a huge impact. They may open the door to the development of inexpensive, portable devices that can rapidly detect, identify and quantify biological and chemical substances. These may take the form of specific sensing devices, or may simply be features integrated into the next few generations of mobile phones. As such, nanosensors are expected to lead to revolutionary applications, including early disease detection, real-time health monitoring, the early and accurate detection of environmental pollutants and contaminants, and even biological or chemical weapons.

Nanosensors(link is external)

Nanotechnology for Energy

Nanotechnology may improve energy systems in two key areas over the next 15 years. First, solar cells, cheaper now than they have ever been, are poised for significant improvement due largely to nanotechnology. High-efficiency multi-junction solar cells(link is external), infrared energy capture(link is external) and wavelength-splitting(link is external) designs may increase high-efficiency solar cell performance by 200-300%. Roll-to-roll printing(link is external) of solar cells on plastic using photosynthetic inks will allow solar panels to be manufactured at significantly lower costs than even today’s low prices.

Secondly, batteries will improve through the use of enhanced nanomaterials and economies of scale. We expect higher capacities, much faster recharging, and greater longevity and significantly lower prices. Better and cheaper batteries could be the cornerstone technology to displace the internal combustion engine for passenger vehicles and support the transition to renewables in homes and businesses by addressing the intermittency of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Using these technologies, buildings may become energy independent and solar-powered fueling stations could support the growing electric vehicle market.

Roll-to-roll Production of Organic Tandem Solar Cells(link is external)

Emerging neuroscience technologies

Neuroscience is the study of the structure and function of the nervous system and brain. Advances in neuro- and cognitive science have improved our understanding of perception, memory, reasoning and emotion. This field is a little less advanced than the previous two but, given recent massive investments in the U.S. and E.U., there is significant potential for surprise in the next 15 years.

Neurostimulation

Neurostimulation covers those technologies that stimulate, or block, certain parts of the nervous system, particularly within the brain. The technology is used to treat various severe neurological disorders, such as Parkinson’s disease, depression and insomnia. Neurostimulation can also be used to augment human cognitive function. Neurostimulation has historically been performed through both invasive (surgery) and non-invasive means (taking pills, electrical stimulation). Wearable headsets are now being marketed that work by adding a slight voltage to neurons, letting them fire more easily. These devices use transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS)(link is external), which has the potential to enhance language, learning, attention, problem solving, coordination and memory functions; help combat insomnia, anxiety, and depression; and manage pain. The future use of both “smart drugs” and tDCS could allow some people to gain a competitive advantage over others.

Foc.us: a Biohacking Headset to Improve Your Game(link is external)

Brain-Computer Interface

A brain-computer interface (BCI) is a direct communication pathway that connects nerve signals in the brain to an external computer. BCIs can be invasive (implanted within or just above the brain), or noninvasive (on the scalp surface). BCIs are used therapeutically to assist, augment or repair human cognitive, sensory or motor functions. Today, it requires training and practice to make BCIs useful and reliable. Research, artificial intelligence and more data, however, will improve this significantly. Potential near-term applications include the use of BCIs to detect lapses in attention among occupations requiring vigilance, and as a communication tool for those who have lost motor skills but retained cognition. In the future, this technology could be used to improve cognitive functions, to better understand human preferences, and to augment human capabilities such as coordination and response times. It may even be used to develop senses new to humans, such as the ability to sense magnetic fields, infrared light or radio waves.

• Mindster Brain-Computer Interface – Imperial College London(link is external)
• Harvard Study Uses Brain to Brain Interface to Move a Rat’s Tail(link is external)
• Sensory Substitution: Welcome to Your Future Brain(link is external)

Emerging digital technologies

The digital revolution is the most mature of the four technology groups in this study (see MetaScan 2 for a description of digital futures). Digital technologies and infrastructure provide a foundation that will integrate, network and accelerate the three groups of technologies described above.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) involves giving machines such traits as reasoning, planning, learning, communication and perception, and the ability to move and manipulate objects. AI is in wide use today: in Apple’s Siri(link is external) for voice recognition, Google’s text and image search (link is external)functions, Facebook’s facial recognition (link is external)capability, NASA’s rovers(link is external), and algorithmic stock trading. Currently, however, AI is task-specific. The next step is for researchers and computer scientists to advance AI so that computers can learn general knowledge that can be used to enable them to work in new situations, or respond better to the user’s contexts and mood. AI innovations are software-based, and are being incorporated into personal tools (e.g., smart phones, Google glasses) as new features, often at near-zero incremental cost. AI will make it possible to automate many tasks, greatly improving personal efficiency and productivity.

Artificial Intelligence Arrives(link is external)

Robotics

Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation and application of robots and related computer and control systems. Robots help with or take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes, and/or resemble humans in appearance, behaviour or cognition. Increasingly, robots are designed to act in roles complementary to humans. Today, experimental robots can inventory stock, move loads, pick berries, do housework, perform elder care, sense remotely and create a virtual presence. As their AI improves, they will get smarter and more capable. Robot hardware is improving quickly; the challenge is the software – the intelligence behind the machine that allows it to function in a specific manner. Task-specific robots could do tasks as diverse as surgery, cooking and driving. Businesses will continue to be early adopters of robot technology, with home use following as prices decline and features become more competitive.

• NAO Next Gen: Aldebaran Robotics’ New Robot(link is external)
• China bought or made 32,800 robots in 2012, more than any other country(link is external)
• The Robot Report

Domains: Potential Impacts

This section illustrates the potential impacts the new technologies could have on ten “domains” within society. It explores four traditional economic domains – manufacturing, services, natural resources and agriculture – then four key infrastructure domains – health, energy, transportation and security – and finally two cross-cutting perspectives on what work and home could look like. It is not a prediction of the future, but rather is intended to help readers get a sense of what is possible if these technologies develop in ways that many experts think are plausible. There are opportunities and risks with each technology that will influence its development.

1. The Potential Impact on Manufacturing

Manufacturing may be more local and efficient.

When it comes to light manufacturing, synthetic biology and 3D printing have similar characteristics: they both support the local production of a “product” from a digital file using simple low-cost equipment; they enable very low-cost replication of a small or large quantity; and they allow the user to easily experiment and customize the product. Currently, 3D printing uses close to 30 different materials with growing complexity (e.g., Boeing prints 22 000 different airline parts). Soon this will include clothes, many consumer goods and electronic gadgets, to name a few. Synthetic biology will likely produce liquids, solids and industrial chemicals for pharmaceuticals, medicine, paper and building supplies and other goods yet to be imagined, in small or large quantities, and may produce raw materials on-site for local manufacturing plants.

Low-cost robots may level robots may level the playing field.

Sensors, artificial intelligence and robots will reshape heavy manufacturing and are likely to have a leveling impact across both developed and developing economies. While developing countries may lose their low-cost labour advantage as advanced economies deploy an affordable AI-enabled robotic workforce, both economies will be able to deploy AI and increase the productivity of their low-skilled workers.

New materials with new materials with new properties may stimulate innovation.

New bio and nanomaterials are likely to launch a new era of product and process innovation. Their new properties are changing the size, at both ends of the scale, at which designers, engineers and architects can dream. Nanocomposites and other new materials – some as strong as steel and others soft and supple – will improve the performance of manufactured products and support a wider range of 3D printed objects. Embedded sensors and digital tags within materials will enable tracking along the supply chain, offering improved transparency and monitoring of product life cycles.

Industrial processes become more environmental.

Growing pressure on renewable and non-renewable resources, as well as public concern about the safety of new nano and biomaterials, will put greater emphasis on building “closed-loop systems.” In these systems, waste from one industry becomes the feedstock for another. Products may be designed to be safe and fully recyclable. Synthetic biology will enable industrial processes to mimic nature (e.g., enzymes can accelerate the decomposition of industrial waste into safe by-products and have commercial value), and nanotechnology will produce new goods with new properties at a smaller scale that may use far less resources. (For example, soon, a smart phone will contain 20 or 30 tiny nanosensors that collect biometric data.)

• The 3D Printing Revolution(link is external)
• Superfast, Cheap DNA Printer(link is external)

Potential Policy Challenge:

• What are the risks for human health and the environment in using biotechnology and nanotechnology to produce goods? Are we able to mitigate these risks?

2. The Potential Impact on Services

New kinds of services

The Canadian economy is dominated by the services sector, employing 78% of Canada’s workforce in 2012. Emerging technologies are likely to increase productivity, but may displace labour in both high- and low-skilled service jobs. Whole new employment and service opportunities are likely to emerge in areas such as professional and business-to-business services; care for aging populations; health care; culture and recreation; intangible products (concepts, designs, information, advice); and international trade-in-services.

Services increasingly customized to the individual

Sensors and artificial intelligence (AI) in print media, signs, and devices will mean that services can be increasingly tailored to the users’ interests by sensing their demographic information and recalling prior choices. Public spaces will be more interactive and able to offer pertinent information without the user navigating tedious menus. Repeat business is ensured by remembering past preferences. AI could remind a hairstylist how a person likes their hair cut, or what toppings they prefer at the burger joint. Means of gathering instant feedback around new experiences will also be useful; at the dentist, a brain-computer interface could verify the patient’s level of comfort. AI tutors could offer students personal attention and “gamify” learning goals (apply game techniques) to encourage progress.

Virtual, augmented and remote services will change the geography of services.

It is likely that services typically conducted face-to-face will be increasingly performed online. Visits to a doctor or lawyer will likely start with a virtual pre-screening interview; the visit itself may also be virtual. In schools, each student may be equipped with a personal AI teacher who monitors their progress and advancement through content modules, with human teachers playing an oversight role. Augmented reality devices may enable travelers and tourists to explore, relax or do business without leaving home. “Telepresencing” (the sense of being in multiple locations at once) will allow users to choose the best service provider for their needs from anywhere in the world rather than the best one in their area.

• Google Glasses(link is external)
• Seattle company allows for virtual doctor visits(link is external)
• Virtual doctor’s office visits via telemedicine to be the norm(link is external)

Potential policy challenges:

• Will new technologies reduce or increase the job-creating potential of the service sector?
• Will there be a global consolidation as large, well-funded companies automate local and national services?
• How do we encourage the right entrepreneurial and technical skills among Canadians to create the next generation of service businesses

3. The potential impact on natural resources

Sustainable resource management and harvesting

The new technologies – particularly sensors, data analytics, AI, drones, robots and synthetic biology – could usher in a new era for the sustainable management and harvesting of forest and fish resources. Together, these tools could allow resource managers and government overseers to monitor ecosystem and resource health, to develop more ecological planting and harvesting strategies, and to quickly identify and implement targeted interventions. Being able to see the whole system would improve planning, investment and public accountability.

Robots for traditional and undersea resource acquisition

Drones and robots will play a growing role in prospecting and extracting in both traditional and undersea mining, particularly in situations that are remote, difficult or dangerous. The operators of these robots may live in urban locations with their families and never set foot on-site. Operators could live in different time zones around the world, enabling round-the-clock production without major disruptions to their personal and family lives.

Robots drive mining trucks(link is external)

Bioproduction of raw materials

Synthetic biology uses genetically engineered organisms to manufacture a growing range of materials such as bioplastics, biofuels, biorubber, biosteel, spider silk and industrial chemicals. Industries that may be disrupted include pulp and paper, building materials, chemical manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and fossil fuel extraction. Secondary-processing companies could bypass the primary producers and develop self-sufficient factories that grow raw materials to their exact specifications using bioreactors and locally available feedstock. As this field develops, it may be hard for traditional producers to remain competitive.

Bioreactor growing biofuel(link is external)

Potential policy challenges:

What impact could synthetic biology have on the global market for Canada’s resources in the next 15 years?

4. The potential impact on agriculture

Agricultural biofactories

In 2028, synthetic biology will have the potential to produce different kinds of food, including meat and drinks at lower costs than today. By manipulating genes, brand-new foods can be created with new properties or flavours. The bioproduction industry is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020 alone. This technology, which uses glass or plastic vats (bioreactors), and needs only sun or sugar, algae and nutrients, can be located anywhere.

Synthetic beef hamburger tastes ‘close to meat'(link is external)

More robust, genetically modified crops

Synthetic biology can also be used to develop new crops with desirable traits such as salt-tolerance, drought-tolerance, and pest-resistance. This technology may help address issues raised by climate change or relieve pressure on arable land, particularly that used to grow feed for animals and some food crops (e.g., sugar, corn for fuel).

Robots on the farm

Farming has the potential to become far more resource-efficient and environmentally friendly on existing farmland, given the prospects for greater automation using AI, robotics and sensors. Flying drones could monitor large fields more quickly and precisely. With information from these drones, as well as that provided by satellites and sensors, automated tractors and sprayers could apply water, seeds, pesticides and nutrients in more targeted and timely ways. This precision could further be enhanced through nanomaterial-based, slow-release pesticides and insecticides. Robotic pickers will continue to emerge and, in time, be able to harvest more types of crops. Automated agriculture could make indoor agriculture more viable in regions where the impact of climate change is degrading arable land, food supply and reliability.

Japanese robot picks the ripest strawberries(link is external)

Tracing food from seed to mouth

Food-related information for monitoring regulations and markets could be enhanced through implanted chips, sensors and bioinformatics. We may be able to trace food production as well as the path of food-borne diseases to a much higher degree. Markets, consumers and governments could have much more detailed knowledge of where food comes from, who produced it, how, and with what by-products.

Potential policy challenges:

• Public support for genetically modified foods remains uncertain. What risks are involved with synthetic biology?
• Automated smart farms may have a reduced need for traditional labour, but may require farmers with new skills who can take advantage of the new technologies.
• Could these technologies help unlock new potential in remote areas in Canada?

5. The potential impact on energy

Solar and wind may become cost-effective

Recently, there have been significant improvements in both solar and wind technologies, including cheap printing processes for solar panels. Many science sources suggest that solar and wind energy may become the most cost effective choice for new electricity generation in many locations within 15 years. As solar and wind have become more affordable, massive research and venture capital has been going into battery storage for homes, buildings and vehicles. Effective and economical battery storage is on the horizon. It is the key enabling technology to ensure that buildings using renewable energy are powered during cloudy and windless days.

• The Future of Oil: Why Demand for Oil Will Start to Fall(link is external)
• New material could make solar power dirt cheap(link is external)

Decentralized energy systems

The combination of cost-effective solar, wind and battery technologies are the key building blocks for decentralized energy systems. Buildings could plug into the grid or operate independently. Electric cars could be plugged into buildings where they could act as a supplementary power source.

Emerging energy storage solutions(link is external)

More electric and hybrid vehicles

Electric engines will grow in the auto sector as advanced batteries take off. Initial costs of electric vehicles are foreseen to decline to parity with conventional vehicles as battery production rises twentyfold. The cost of ownership of electric vehicles is a quarter of the cost of those with internal combustion engines, which will further promote the adoption of electric vehicles as parity approaches. Advanced hybrid engines using biofuels may create a new market segment.

Bioenergy grows

Bioreactors using algae modified through synthetic biology will likely allow firms to produce cheap fuels that use only sunlight and waste CO₂ and water as inputs. Production costs for diesel and ethanol through this “green chemistry” could reach $0.30/L in sunny geographies. Since CO₂could become a valuable commodity as an input for bioreactors, carbon-emitting facilities might diversify into green manufacturing plants. Greener ways to process the oil sands are possible.

Potential policy challenges

• Are we transitioning from centralized to decentralized energy systems? What is the right balance? What does it mean for investment and research?
• Could countries, regions or companies that embrace decentralized energy systems have a longterm competitive advantage? Lower costs? More resilience?

6. The Potential Impact on Transportation

The arrival of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles

The transportation system is in transition. As old vehicles are replaced, the new ones will be more autonomous, smarter and more efficient. Autonomous wheelchairs and delivery vehicles, for example, may become available in hospitals, factories, warehouses and resorts. Although not yet fully autonomous, vehicles with “driver assist” are the new standard for public and personal transportation. Diagnostic tools that use AI will enable vehicles to service themselves by seeking oil changes, brake servicing – even cleaning. As vehicles become even more autonomous, their interiors may transform, allowing passengers to comfortably work or play while they move from place to place. And cars will sync with other devices (e.g., phone, computer, refrigerator) to simplify life even more. Accidents could still occur but identifying who is to blame (the manufacturer, the car’s AI designer or the owner) will become a challenge. All of these factors will contribute to new notions of vehicle ownership and liability.

• What It’s Like to Ride in a Self-Driving Car(link is external)
• Nissan plans for several models of autonomous cars by 2020(link is external)

The internet of “moving” things

It’s not just vehicles; the transportation system itself may also transform. AI in cars and trucks will benefit from highway – and eventually city – roads that include sensors, reflectors, information transmitters and other tools that support autonomous vehicles. Although not all vehicles will be fully autonomous, the majority will at least be “linked” with each other and with traffic control systems to facilitate coordination and communication. This will greatly improve the efficiency of the system, allowing vehicles to move more quickly and, in some areas, travel in a highly coordinated manner that minimizes gridlock. But privacy could be an emerging issue, since all vehicles may now be monitored, mapped – and possibly even controlled – remotely. Trucking and rail transportation methods will continue to compete. Lighter rail cars and the availability of biodiesel means rail may compete more strongly with trucking; however, automated caravans of trucks equipped with sensors will increase the efficiency of the trucking system and reduce costs.

Moving from gasoline engines to hybrids and electric

The power behind transportation is changing. Both electric and hybrid engines will become more common. Energy exchanges between homes and cars using smart grids and “smart homes” technologies will become possible. Fossil fuels may be supplemented with diesel or bioethanol produced locally in bioreactors. The use of light, strong nanomaterials, including nanocarbon, in conjunction with more efficient and longerrange engines and batteries, means vehicles will be safer, weigh less and go farther. The availability of stronger and more heat-tolerant nanomaterials may allow higher running temperatures and more energy-efficient engines. Regardless of mode (airplane, rail, ship or personal car), vehicle range will likely increase, operating costs will drop and environmental impacts will decrease.

Enhanced delivery systems

The transportation portion of industrial value chains will be dramatically more efficient, timely and automated. AI and robotic loading equipment will coordinate the movement of goods between transportation modes and systems, a factor that may foster a more competitive domestic manufacturing sector and keeps costs low. Lean and efficient business models characterized by “just-in-time” systems means responsive production and delivery of goods. For smaller deliveries, some vehicles may be displaced by programmable flying drones that can carry small packages between local destinations. These changes will have an impact on employment and on the sector’s overall contribution to gross domestic product.

Potential policy challenges

• Are governments ready to accommodate new forms of vehicle ownership and liability?
• As the availability of new technologies creates new demands, how will governments manage costs for upgrading or replacing infrastructure?
• The emerging transportation system is built on an extensive data-sharing network. What could this mean for privacy?

7. The potential impact on medicine

Sequencing patient DNA may lead to personalized medicine

DNA data will help medical professionals better identify drug treatments that are effective and safe for a particular patient, and at dosages suitable for their metabolism. Personalized drug testing on stem cells cloned from the patient could reduce the need for more general animal and human drug trials and possibly identify a wider range of possible treatments. As the genetic markers of disease become increasingly known, DNA will grow more useful in diagnosis, as well as pre-diagnosis – offering risk profiles of conditions well before the onset of symptoms. Some chronic diseases may be prevented or even eradicated through prenatal interventions, early-life treatments, or possibly gene therapy.

Technology convergence and the future of medicine(link is external)

Genomics, nanotechnology and synthetic biology could create prevention solutions

Beyond the predictive benefits of personalized medicine, nano-driven sensors are offering earlier detection (e.g., needing fewer cells to spot cancer). These sensors will be paired with therapeutics to support early intervention, such as theranostics(link is external). Nanotechnology and synthetic biology may alleviate concerns about growing antibiotic resistance through solutions to reduce the spread of bacteria or, more effectively, destroy it. Viral outbreaks are already being successfully contained by analyzing an individual’s DNA to detect pathogens. In the future, sensors and electronic records will facilitate this tracking, while synthetic biology may have a role in formulating just-in-time vaccines.

Health monitoring will move beyond the clinical setting, closer to you

Health sensors will appear more frequently in everyday items such as mobile phones or toilets, wearables (e.g., clothing, jewelry – even skin); in a multifunctional “tricorder” (hand-held diagnostic device); or as part of a “lab-on-a-chip” that people may soon keep in their medicine cabinets. The process for self-monitoring of health indicators, as well as monitoring of healthy or unhealthy behaviours, will be simpler and more routine. When diagnostic data is networked, AI-augmented and relayed to clinicians, round-the-clock remote care becomes possible. As brain-computer interface (BCI) tools bring greater awareness of mental states, the brain-body connection underlying addictions, illness and treatment will present new options (e.g., neurostimulation, neuro-enhancing drugs, or simply behaviour change).

Regeneration of lost or diseased tissue

Organ donor wait-lists and black market organ trading may be things of the past for all but the most complicated organs, such as the heart. Growing or 3D printing of organs from a patient’s own cells will allow for faster recovery without rejection. Even nerve damage may become surmountable with the assistance of BCI and robotics. As a consequence, we should anticipate that the line between natural versus enhanced human capability will blur.

Potential policy challenges

• Can we use these new technologies to design systems that reduce public health care costs?
• What changes in institutions, roles and responsibilities are needed to ensure oversight, safety, equity, effectiveness and accountability?
• As some diseases become preventable and new means of extending life and ability are adopted, the views of Canadians around costs, access and rights are likely to be very controversial.

8. The potential impact on security

Slow shift in the types of resources that are scarce, and the areas that are at risk

Resource scarcity is a potential source of conflict. Advances in synthetic biology could reduce pressure on some scarce natural resources by increasing the security of energy, material and food sources. In parallel, new and different minerals may become scarce. For example, lithium reserves may come under pressure as the demand for batteries grows. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates that food and water scarcity driven by climate change will be a growing issue and a potential source of conflict and population displacement. Cheaper solar energy would lower the cost of desalination, which could increase food production and reduce the number of refugees forced to leave some drought-prone food-growing areas. This could be bolstered by the development of hardier crops and more adaptive farming methods using new technologies.

Open-source warefare grows

“Do-it-yourself” surveillance and weapon systems will likely become more common, enabling new kinds of crimes and conflict. For example, the Switchblade Drone is lethal at short distances and fits in a small backpack. New developments in sensors, robotics and nanotechnology could lead to the more widespread use of remote sensors in surveillance, intelligence and warfare. Miniature unmanned aerial, surface and aquatic vehicles and devices – controlled either remotely or autonomously – are expected to become more prevalent. These will be smaller, cheaper and more widely available than today. Open-source knowledge may lead to widely distributed cyber-warfare capabilities. In addition, do-it-yourself enthusiasts may use synthetic biology to produce and release harmful substances into the environment – either accidentally or on purpose. In all these cases, technology originally created to enhance security may become the threat. In response, pre-programmed nanodevices and robots will likely create security networks and sensing surfaces that could identify threats such as nano-enabled weapons, viruses and poisons.

US Air Force on Micro Air Vehicles(link is external)

The end of public anonymity

Constant monitoring and surveillance will become increasingly prevalent through the use of nano and biosensors, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence (AI). Smart devices will routinely know a person’s movements and location to within 10 centimetres, which will make it possible to infer a person’s activity, behaviour, interactions and relationships. This will make it increasingly difficult for individuals to go unnoticed, as AI can identify people from face and gait, and even determine the behaviour patterns of those without smart devices by looking at those who do. These devices will increasingly be used to identify, authenticate and track the movement of food, goods and materials in value chains. Constant monitoring and surveillance could also enhance public health and environmental and personal security. For example, in emergency situations, sensors, AI and machine-to-machine communication could make it easier to locate people and identify their needs. As privacy becomes a major issue, there may be a need to rethink the balance between public and private interests and liberties.

Potential policy challenges

• How can we prepare for the spread of cheap – but lethal – do-it-yourself weapon systems?
• As environmental sensors and security-monitoring systems grow, what new rules, roles and responsibilities will arise between the various government, business and non-government watchdogs to share information in the face of a bio-crisis or terrorist attack?

9. The potential impact on the home

Home is where the “brain” is

The “internet of things(link is external)” will have considerable impact on homes, but at its core will be the need to make sense of all the information being generated. Homes will be able to combine, interpret and relay the information coming in from a variety of new sensors in appliances, fixtures and fittings, information that ranges from specific needs and monitoring of occupants, to basic system diagnostics. Artificial intelligence (AI) and the “internet of things” will move us from the age of the home computer to the age of the “computer home.”

Interaction will change

New technologies will allow traditional in-home activities to also happen virtually. The seamless management of data and systems, enabled by AI and new materials, will change how homes look. It is likely that new interactive surfaces will appear throughout the home that will allow occupants to monitor and manage household systems and communicate with others. Over time, as technology evolves, traditional building materials and fittings will be displaced by new ones that will integrate with a home’s AI and sensors. These sensors will share information remotely with smart phones and smart vehicles, allowing people to administer their house remotely.

Imagine a frustrated woman walking down a hall way in a manufacturing plant. She is in jeans and a leather jacket with her hair tied back. To her right, there are a series of conveyor belts pouring a grey pulp-like substance into a metal horizontal connecting tube. There are also three large closed vats in the backgroundSamantha was shocked to find out her route had been cancelled. She had been hauling steel from the shipyard to the fabrication plant for over 20 years. She liked the ocean view and fresh air. The company she worked for imported steel and turned it into rebar for the construction industry.

Samantha slammed her truck door and quickly made her way to find her boss to express her frustration. She hesitated as she saw Douglas in the break room.

“What’s this about them cancelling my run to the shipyard?”

“We don’t need steel anymore,” answered Douglas. “Apparently, we’re going to grow our own steel on site… Read the memo.’’ Douglas pointed in the direction of the wall screens.

Samantha read the news wall. The on-site process would use biological feedstock, enzymes and heat from the neighbouring waste-management facility to grow bio-steel in rebar molds, plus a whole new line of other construction products. The resulting material would be certified as a renewable product. Samantha wondered if she still had a job.

Douglas noticed her troubled look. He said the feedstock would be coming from local forests and agricultural sites and asked whether she would mind a new route in the country? Samantha’s mood lightened as she considered the new changes.

Don’t smile at the screens